On the surface, Fiji’s Engaging with the Pacific meeting held at Natadola last week appears to undermine the integrity of the Pacific Islands Forum. The meeting was convened after Vanuatu’s Prime Minister Edward Natapei deferred the Melanesian Spearhead Group leaders' meeting which was to be hosted by the incoming chair — Fiji’s leader, Frank Bainimarama.

Commodore Bainimarama blamed Australia for inducing Vanuatu's Prime Minister into deferring the MSG leaders meeting and expelled acting Australian High Commissioner Sarah Roberts to demonstrate his annoyance. 

Bainimarama’s assumptions and Graham Davis’ suggestion in The Australian that Australia used a $66 million aid package to 'strong-arm' Natapei fundamentally misunderstands not only Natapei but Australian diplomacy.

Bainimarama, underestimates Natapei’s own sense of national pride and integrity and desire to protect the regional organisation he will chair from next week. Hosting and chairing the Pacific Islands Forum is a matter of some pride for Pacific Island nations. 

Bainimarama’s MSG-Plus meeting threatened to undermine the Forum and thus to undermine Vanuatu’s position as incoming chair. Bainimarama has also slighted Natapei by declining his offer to assist Fiji with political dialogue. Natapei acted in the interests of Vanuatu and the Forum, not Australia. 

Australian diplomats undoubtedly discussed the issue with the Vanuatu Government but Canberra’s aid dollars would not have been used as leverage. Melanesian governments have long experience of continuing to attract significant aid from AusAID regardless of any behaviour that Australian foreign ministers and officials might regard as disappointing. Australian aid to Vanuatu is not under threat because of its relationship with Fiji.

The Natadola meeting was not just a meeting about Fiji; leaders and representatives from eleven Pacific Island countries discussed 'trade, security, sustainable development, good governance, climate change' — all issues regularly on the annual Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ meeting.

Fiji’s press statement after the event was openly critical of the 'current model of Pacific regionalism to effectively address key development and governance challenges' — a thinly veiled attack on the Forum.

CORRECTION (posted 21/5/10) Aid to pacific increases: I incorrectly surmised from the overall aid flows of the aid budget that aid to the Pacific had decreased. Australia's aid to the Pacific in fact increased if you use the more reliable country program figures in table 15, on page 66. Good news for the region, which remains the top priority for Australia's aid program.

Whether or not the aid budget increased as a percentage of GNI, one aspect of the budget is clear – the Pacific Island region, long the biggest recipient of Australian largesse, took a cut this year.

The biggest loser was regional funding. For a year in which Australia holds the chair of the Pacific Islands Forum, the Pacific could have expected some generous support from Australia for regional programs.  But the budget reported an under-spend for the last financial year (only $133 million out of an allocation of $222.5 million was spent) and a reduced allocation of $152 million for next year.

Country and regional programs for PNG and the Pacific still absorb 25 per cent of the entire aid budget and PNG is the largest single recipient of Australian bilateral or country program aid. Country program funding on the whole increased so the actual cut for PNG and the Pacific was not huge — $5.5 million overall – but in the context of a bigger aid budget, it is disappointing that the Pacific region did not benefit from an increase.

The Rudd Government has announced an increase to international development assistance for the next financial year from $3,818 million in 2009-10 to $4,349 million in 2010-11.

It's a decent increase in challenging times which the government says is consistent with its commitment to scale up ODA to 0.5 per cent of GNI by 2015-16.

Foreign Minister Stephen Smith’s media release says Australia’s ODI/GNI ratio is forecast to increase to 0.33 per cent over the 2010-11 financial year. Last year, however, Mr Smith’s media release on the aid budget said the ODI/GNI ratio was forecast to increase to 0.34 per cent in the 2009-10 financial year.

A ratio that appears to be going backwards would seem to indicate that the Rudd government is not as committed as it claims to manage the scale up of Australian aid. 

The Australian's Jennifer Hewitt argues the government has made a budget saving of $207 million by not increasing aid as much as it could have, the ABC's Sean Dorney also draws attention to apparent inconsistencies in the government’s commitments while The Age’s Tim Colebatch says $1.1 billion will be cut from forward estimates of the aid budget over the next four years.

But the government has a rather complicated explanation for this apparent backtracking on page three of the AusAID budget. Australia has implemented new international accounting standards to calculate GNI, which increases GNI by around four per cent. GNI has also increased due to economic growth. The government has decided it will not apply its promised ODA/GNI targets to the higher GNI.

Last year’s ODA/GNI ratio was not the forecast 0.34 per cent but in fact 0.31 per cent, which validates Mr Smith’s statement that Australia’s commitment to aid increased. But the small increase puts more pressure on future budgets if Australia is to meet the 0.5 per cent target in 2015-16.

The lesson I have drawn here is that if you want a good news story on Australia’s aid commitments, it’s not worth comparing this year’s budget with last year’s budget or indeed looking at forward estimates.

Photo by Flickr user origamidon's photostream, used under a Creative Commons licence.

The resignations over the last ten days of Tonga’s Attorney-General and Papua New Guinea’s Attorney-General have made me wonder whether there is a 'Fiji-isation' of the Pacific in the air.

Each resignation was related to concerns about governance.  In Tonga's case, Attorney-General John Cauchi (an Australian) resigned because of his serious concerns about government interference in the country's judiciary and breaches of the constitution. 

In Papua New Guinea, Attorney-General Allan Marat (a member of the Government in parliament) was apparently asked by Prime Minister Michael Somare to resign because he had opposed the Government’s 'Maladina Bill'. Critics of this controversial bill argue that it will reduce the powers of the Ombudsman and undermine the integrity of the Ombudsman Commission.

The government of Papua New Guinea is not about to abandon 35 years of parliamentary democracy, and the Tongan King and government are unlikely to back away from promised moves towards greater democracy.  But the actions of both governments in recent weeks have signalled their willingness to undermine accountability and transparency – hardly an advancement of the Forum Principles of Good Leadership and Accountability to which they have committed.

Pacific Island countries would be unlikely to admit that they are looking to Fiji as a model.  read more

As one of those at the Lowy Institute who has claimed Australian aid to Africa is motivated by Australia's bid for a temporary seat at the UN Security Council in 2013-14, I feel compelled by Joel Negin's post to explain my thinking.

DFAT's own promotional brochure for its UNSC candidature claims Australia is an active partner in global efforts to realise the Millennium Development Goals. Progress in achieving the MDGs is slowest in sub-Saharan Africa, so if Australia wants to be recognised by the international community as a player in eradicating poverty, it has to increase the visibility of its aid efforts in Africa.

Australia increased aid to Africa by over 40% to an estimated $165.2 million in 2009-10. The Rudd Government has indicated Africa will benefit from its scaling up of the aid program towards an ultimate target of 0.5 per cent of GNI by 2015-16. 

Any country bidding for a temporary UNSC seat cannot ignore Africa. The African bloc at the UN has 53 member states. Australia's relations with all but a few of them are narrow and in many cases non-existent. Canberra will need to work hard to attract African votes. 

The normally cautious Rudd Government has undertaken the task of ramping up engagement with Africa at great speed, which suggests it is concerned about more than 'following the business...community', as Joel suggests. Indeed, this DFAT summary outlines three priorities for engagement with Africa – trade and investment, development cooperation and peace and security. 

As I mentioned in a previous post, the blogosphere has special significance for Fiji as it has become the major source of news on political events. I've heard more than a few comments suggesting that Fiji-focused blogs cannot be relied on for accuracy, and I have to admit that I spend more time checking the facts they present than I do reading them. 

Nevertheless, Fiji's blogosphere will grow in importance when Fiji's military government introduces its new Media Decree, so I was thinking of posting a blogroll of websites on Fiji with a bit of analysis on which sites are useful and which are not. But I see today that the Fiji Ministry of Information has beaten me to it. 

According to Fiji Today's blog, the Ministry has provided a list of websites to IT staff in public service agencies so that searches of the sites could be monitored.

I have no independent evidence to support Fiji Today's information that the Fiji Government considers all these sites, the vast majority of which are blogs, to be subversive or dangerous. I agree with Fiji Today, however, that blogs such as Croz Walsh (generally balanced but, by Crosbie Walsh's own admission, mildly pro-regime), Babasiga (Fijian cultural focus), Stuck in the Fiji M.U.D. (pro-government and occasional anti-Australia/New Zealand stance), or Real Fiji News (pro-government and no longer active) could hardly be labelled subversive.

Fiji's interim government has just extended its Public Emergency Regulations (PER) until the end of April. The PER has been implemented on a month-to-month basis and this latest extension will mean that it has been in place for more than a year.

The most prominent feature of the PER is Article 16, which authorises the Permanent Secretary for Information to censor the media to ensure that no broadcast or publication can give rise to disorder. That the PER is due to be lifted after Fiji introduces a new media decree (originally planned to be issued this month) demonstrates that control of the media has been the central motivation of the PER. 

It does seem a little incongruous that, in the absence of evidence of armed insurrection or public rioting, a popular and peaceful tourist destination like Fiji needs emergency regulations.

Fiji's media restrictions have meant that Fiji's media outlets have refrained or been prevented from offering much critical commentary about any issue concerning politics or government. There has also been a noticeable decline in the number of Fiji citizens willing to speak to foreign media outlets. 

Graeme Dobell's post about Australia's drift from the Pacific region covers an issue close to my heart and one I am dwelling on in my research. This recent article from Islands Business also reflects consternation in the region that Australia is losing its Pacific focus.

One of the benefits to the region of Australia chairing the Pacific Islands Forum is that the Pacific has a formal opportunity to project its voice through an activist and well-resourced middle power – to get noticed and be taken seriously on the world stage. 

To the best of my knowledge, the Pacific Islands Forum is the only regional multilateral organisation Australia currently chairs. I would have thought our foreign policy-focused PM would be a bit more interested in projecting Australia's voice in and through the Forum. Prime Minister Rudd said as much himself in relation to global climate change negotiations during this doorstop at the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in November last year. 

But since the Cairns Pacific Islands Forum leaders' meeting, when Australia assumed the Chair, we have heard very little from Canberra about this role. The announcement of further funding for the Forum did not even mention the fact that Australia holds the Chair of the organisation. Perhaps Canberra, aware of its reputation in some quarters as the bully of the region, is deliberately adopting a low public profile as Chair to avoid confrontation. 

Papua New Guinea has been obsessed for the last year with the promise of unprecedented revenues from Exxon Mobil's US$15 billion investment in a liquefied natural gas project.

Exxon Mobil announced financial closure of the project last week, meaning the project will now proceed in full.

PNG is hardly new to the resources business but the size and scale of the LNG project dwarfs any previous investment in the country. The announcement was welcome news for Prime Minister Somare, who celebrated his 42 years in Parliament this week with some chocolate cake.

The PNG Government has been so focused on finalising the deal with Exxon Mobil over the last year that little high-level thinking has gone into how the Government will meet the expectations of population to turn windfall revenues into better services and higher living standards. The early signals of the challenges ahead are certainly rather daunting.

I've written previously on the diplomatic opportunities provided by natural disasters to reduce political tensions. Fiji is again suffering from the impact of a natural disaster. Tropical Cyclone Tomas, which struck Fiji this week, was one of the worst cyclones to ever to hit the country.

Both Australia and New Zealand (as well as France) have committed military aircraft to assist with surveying damage and providing support to affected communities. Humanitarian and reconstruction assistance will follow, in response to a formal request from Suva.

While this is not the first time since the December 2006 coup that Australia and New Zealand have assisted Fiji after a natural disaster, the agreement of Fiji's Government to accept help from Australian and New Zealand military assets is a new development. Perhaps all three governments could harness this spirit of cooperation to further their trilateral engagement. 

A joint visit by Ministers Smith and McCully to Fiji in the next few weeks could be timed to take a look at the delivery of Australian and New Zealand cyclone relief and carry on their dialogue with Fiji's Foreign Minister Ratu Inoke Kubuabola. 

A visit to affected communities and meetings with disaster management authorities and humanitarian agencies would send a tangible signal to the people of Fiji that its neighbours are committed to the country, despite political differences. It would also be an appropriate gesture from Australia in its role as chair of the Pacific Islands Forum.

Photo courtesy of the Department of Defence.

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was busy improving bilateral relations with more than one neighbour last week. Incredibly, for two countries that share an island and a difficult border, President Yudhoyono was the first Indonesian President to visit PNG since President Soeharto in 1979. 

Making up for lost time, the two governments signed a Defence Cooperation Agreement, a Double Taxation Agreement and letters of exchange on agriculture cooperation. They also agreed to open an official border crossing at Sokau-Wutung. And, according to media reports in PNG, Indonesia has agreed to train PNG police to prevent transnational terrorism, money laundering and people smuggling.

PNG's Post Courier newspaper has suggested that Indonesia's improved relations with Australia paves the way for new forms of trilateral cooperation between PNG, Australia and Indonesia. Whether or not this eventuates, PNG stands to benefit from a more mature bilateral relationship with Indonesia. The focus on economic as well as security cooperation evident in President Yudhoyono's visit is a positive development for the Pacific Islands region's most populous country.

The space given to aid issues in the Australian media over the last fortnight gives me hope that more Australians might be interested in the international debate on development than I previously thought.

But discussion in the developed world about 'development' tends to focus on how much aid rich countries give to poor countries rather than the development process itself. Australia spends $3.8 million in aid to reduce poverty and promote sustainable development. Taxpayers have a right to know how their aid dollars are being spent and should be engaged in discussion on more effective ways of using aid. 

But although it is easy to blame donors like Australia for slow development progress, particularly in the Pacific, it is worth remembering that aid and development are two different concepts. Aid is only a small part of the development story for countries that have lifted their communities out of poverty.

Former governor of the Central Bank of Solomon Islands, Tony Hughes, said at a recent conference in Vanuatu that the Pacific was 'hooked on aid' and pointed to another path to development for the region by highlighting the importance of microfinance and the availability of credit for small enterprises. His comments endorse the valuable work of Muhammad Yunus and his Grameen Bank, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for innovative work in using microcredit to lift millions out of poverty.

I have been sceptical that New Zealand's diplomatic outreach to Fiji would bear much fruit, but I was proven wrong on the weekend. New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully and Fiji Foreign Minister Ratu Inoke Kubuabola agreed on the nomination of respective acting heads of mission and that they would maintain their dialogue, with an agreement to meet again in May.

New Zealand diverted Fiji from its provocative nomination of interim Government spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Neumi Leweni as Fiji's Counsellor in its New Zealand mission. The more conventional nomination of Mere Tora has been accepted. This shows the Fiji Foreign Minister's commitment to negotiation over maintaining a stand-off as a means of resolving a dispute.

Even more interesting was the announcement that McCully had accepted a proposal to meet Commodore Bainimarama during the Hong Kong Rugby Sevens at the end of March. It is not the first time sport has been invoked as a tool to soothe diplomatic tensions. If there is one thing Fiji and New Zealand have in common, it is their love of rugby. The meeting may just be a courtesy but is at least a crack in the impasse, and it may lead to something more. 

Canberra may be willing to see Wellington take the lead here, but it should be careful not to be left behind. It is just as much in Australia's interests as it is in New Zealand's to be demonstrating a commitment to the future of Fiji.

Photo by Flickr user cx1uk, used under a Creative Commons license.

The Foreign Minister delivered a statement to parliament about developments in Burma this week. Mr Smith outlined the disturbing situation in Burma, the promises of elections and Australia's decision to 'do more for the long-term future of Burma's people'. He explained Australian policy towards Burma would follow the US Administration's new approach – that is, a combination of engagement, sanctions and humanitarian assistance.

Australian sanctions will be maintained until there is significant change from Burma's authorities. Australia will continue to engage with Burma to directly advocate democratic reform and national reconciliation. Australia will increase aid to Burma to $50 million annually over the next three years to meet humanitarian needs and address long-term challenges.

A similar address on Fiji would be timely. In fact, the Minister could almost do a cut-and-paste job for some parts of the speech. This Ministerial press conference last week explained the state of relations with Fiji and the objectives of the trilateral (Australia/New Zealand/Fiji) Foreign Ministers' meeting but did not get the attention that a statement to parliament would receive.

At our first Wednesday Lowy Lunch event for the year this week, I spoke about the year ahead in the Pacific. On Fiji, I said it was important Australia had a relationship that allowed our Government to protect business and consular interests, mitigate damage to the region and maintain links so that Australia could enjoy a deeper relationship with Fiji in a post-Bainimarama environment.

But I cautioned that we should not expect that greater engagement or any normalisation of relations with Fiji now would lead to any change in behaviour from the Fiji Government. 

Disappointingly for Australia and our claims to regional leadership, it is highly unlikely that any policy tweaking or new engagement — even though worth doing for Australia's own interests — will induce Bainimarama to change course. Bainimarama announced just last week that any elected government after 2014 would do its work on the military's terms, thus signaling that any future government had to be approved by him or the military. 

Afterwards, I reflected on what was missing from the debate on what to do about Fiji. Why are Bainimarama and his colleagues winning the public relations campaign? Why are Australian and New Zealand policies being portrayed as harming an innocent Fiji? Why do supporters of the regime get more public attention than its critics? 

In this post last week, I speculated on the motivations behind New Zealand’s first steps in a diplomatic rapprochement with Fiji. New Zealand Foreign Minister McCully is no doubt genuine about New Zealand's efforts to improve relations with Fiji, but is Fiji equally genuine?

Mr McCully probably expected that Fiji would act in good faith in these early stages of a newly positive relationship. At the bare minimum he could have expected that Fiji's interim foreign minister, Ratu Inoke Kubuabola, would forward the name of Fiji's nominee to take up the new Counselor position at the Fiji High Commission in Wellington through appropriate diplomatic channels.

But interim Prime Minister Bainimarama has dispensed with such niceties, announcing that his nominee for the position was Permanent Secretary for Information and Military Spokesperson, Lieutenant Colonel Neumi Leweni. As a key member of Bainimarama's regime, Leweni is subject to a New Zealand travel ban. He has also been the public face and voice of the regime and become famous for his role as chief censor. 

The nomination and Bainimarama's public announcement of it is a deliberate provocation. 

If New Zealand declines to accept the nomination, as it rightly could, given Leweni is such a high profile associate of Bainimarama, Fiji will renege on the rapprochement. If New Zealand accepts Leweni in order to maintain forward movement in the relationship, Bainimarama will have scored a significant public relations victory and Wellington will have to endure another diplomatic irritant, in the form of the outspoken Leweni, on their doorstep.

New Zealand could respond by publicly nominating an equally difficult personality to the new New Zealand Counselor position – perhaps one of the three diplomats Fiji has already expelled. But that would be escalating the affair.

This will be a significant test of New Zealand diplomacy, one that I'm sure Canberra will be observing very closely.

Sam's post yesterday on Israel's humiliation of the Turkish Ambassador reminded me how important diplomacy is in the Middle East. 

I knew Turkish Ambassador to Israel Oğuz Çelikkol well when I served at the Australian Embassy in Ankara a few years ago. He was then Turkey's Special Representative on Iraq and I frequently accompanied senior Australian Government visitors in discussions with him on the war in Iraq. He was one of the most intelligent and talented diplomats I ever met. He was also a very nice person. 

His knowledge of the Middle East region was exceptional, and like most senior Turkish diplomats, Çelikkol was a strong proponent of the Western alliance system and very well disposed to Israel.

Relations between Turkey and Israel have been souring for the last four years as Turkey's AKP Government has improved its relations with Arab countries, met with Hamas leaders and openly criticised Israeli actions in Gaza. Experienced diplomats, senior journalists and businesspeople in both countries, however, have worked hard to keep the relationship intact. 

That a diplomat as experienced as Çelikkol was appointed Ambassador to Israel shows how important the relationship is to Ankara. Israel badly needs friends in its neighbourhood, even if those friends retain the right to criticise Israel's actions. It also needs Turkey to act as a mediator in the region. Ambassador Çelikkol himself is a vital ally for Israel.

Risking an important strategic relationship with a diplomatic snub over something as petty as a Turkish television program was a stunt Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon could have avoided — with a private (rather than televised) expression of serious concern that would have been relayed faithfully to Ankara, probably with Çelikkol's recommendations for how Turkey could assuage Israel's concerns. 

Ayalon's apology shows calmer heads have prevailed just ahead of Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak's visit to Turkey. I wonder, though, how many more misadventures this important relationship will endure before its advocates on both sides lose the will to protect it.

New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully has moved quickly in the new year to achieve a minor breakthrough in Fiji. While most of Oceania takes its annual January break, New Zealand and Fiji have agreed to improve their very poor diplomatic relations. McCully met with his Fijian counterpart and they agreed on expanded diplomatic representation in both capitals.

In this post only a few weeks ago, I wrote that Commodore Bainimarama was impervious to influence beyond his inner circle. Murray McCully's actions made me reconsider my assessment. Could it be that New Zealand's policy is diverging from Australian policy and that New Zealand's engagement with Fiji will succeed where Australia's isolation has not?

The theory that New Zealand has a more sympathetic approach to the Pacific Islands region has long resonated with critics of Australia, particularly during the Howard era, but in terms of policy towards Fiji, it is difficult to demonstrate that New Zealand has been more friendly. 

Something that never changes about Melanesia or the wider Pacific Islands region is its unpredictability. This gives me useful cover for my errors of prediction and changes of mind.

The major prediction I was wrong about was my belief that the economies of the Pacific Islands would all be hurt badly by the global financial and economic crisis. Some countries suffered big losses – particularly those dependent on remittances (Samoa and Tonga) and those dependent on one major export (Solomon Islands). GDP growth dropped across the region in 2009 but most economies still grew rather than contacted. The majority of Pacific Island countries did not experience the economic destruction that many developed countries did. 

I had thought Papua New Guinea would suffer from the decline in commodity prices but PNG survived the GEC relatively unscathed, albeit by drawing on its trust funds to compensate for lower world commodity prices. PNG even ended the year on a high, concluding a US$15 billion liquefied natural gas deal with Exxon Mobil.

The decline in tourism in late 2008 had sounded alarm bells for countries like Vanuatu and Fiji, dependent on tourism from Australia and New Zealand. But tourism rebounded and Australians and New Zealanders in ever larger numbers flocked to the Pacific this year on inexpensive package deals kinder on household budgets than travel to Europe or the US. Economies dependent on the tourism dollar were smiling through the global recession. 

My change of mind, like Graeme Dobell's, is related to Fiji. For most of the year, I have thought that Commodore Bainimarama could be influenced by cleverer strategies and engagement with key partners like Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea, or by important institutions in Fiji applying pressure on him. As the year ends, I am convinced that the interim Prime Minister is completely impervious to any influence beyond his inner circle.

I was nodding along with Graeme Dobell's post on Tuesday about Australian policy, Fiji and the Pacific until he mentioned the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG). I don't agree that the MSG is a serious rival to the Pacific Islands Forum.

It has four principal members (the fifth member being the Kanak independence activists of New Caledonia, the FLNKS), a small secretariat and few resources. All four members – Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu — have historically put more of their limited diplomatic efforts into engagement with the Pacific Islands Forum than into the MSG. 

The MSG Free Trade Agreement has not yet contributed to better economic outcomes for members. Divisions between Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu over the involvement of West Papuans in the MSG show that the organisation is not united on a policy front. Solomon Islands' focus will continue to lie with the Pacific Islands Forum over the MSG, thanks to the Forum's support for the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands.

Vanuatu's Chief Justice, Vincent Lunabeck, has injected some good sense back into Vanuatu politics. He has overturned the decision of Speaker of Parliament Maxime Carlot Korman to declare Prime Minister Edward Natapei's seat vacant while he was attending the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Trinidad and Tobago. The Speaker's decision was ruled to be 'unconstitutional and of no legal effect', thus allowing Natapei to retain his seat and his position as Prime Minister.

I have personally sat in Vanuatu's Supreme Court to hear Chief Justice Lunabeck deliver decisions on political cases on several occasions. I was always impressed by his capacity to deliver decisions that were not only clear interpretations of the constitution and other relevant legislation but also directed at maintaining the stability of the political system and good governance – a difficult task in Melanesia. 

What is more surprising is that Speaker of Parliament, Maxime Carlot Korman, a very experienced politician who has been Prime Minister himself and been on the wrong side of Lunabeck's judgements on a few occasions, thinks it is worth trying to outfox the shrewd Chief Justice by appealing the decision. 

Following up on my post from last week on Iranian aid to Solomon Islands and the difficulties Tehran had in sending cash to Honiara, I see the two governments have found a clever way around the legal obstacle. After the ANZ Bank refused to transfer funds from Iran to the Solomon Islands Government, the Iranian Embassy in Canberra simply handed the funds to the Solomon Islands High Commission in Canberra, which is now able to pay for the travel of 25 Solomon Islands medical students to Cuba. 

While this is a straightforward solution, the fact that Iran sought an alternative means to deliver its aid and followed through on its promise to Solomon Islands, a distant and unlikely friend, shows it is serious about winning as much support as possible in international forums.

Photo by Flickr user psd, used under a Creative Commons license.

Commonwealth Heads of Government have been meeting  in Trinidad and Tobago to advance an international agreement on climate change. Although Pacific Islands have a central interest in climate change and the voice of Pacific Island leaders needed to be heard at the Commonwealth meeting, not all leaders had an opportunity to attend. Fiji's Frank Bainimarama was barred due to Fiji's suspension from the Commonwealth, and Nauru's President could not attend because Nauru had not paid its membership dues. 

But spare a thought for the Prime Minister of Vanuatu, Edward Natapei. While he was en route to the Caribbean, the Speaker of Parliament in Vanuatu, Maxime Carlot Korman, declared the Prime Minister's seat vacant, forcing Natapei to retreat from the Caribbean.

The Speaker made use of the Members of Parliament (Vacation of Seats) Act, ironically used against Korman himself in 1988, to declare the PM's seat vacant after he missed three consecutive meetings of parliament without seeking the permission of the Speaker. Natapei's staff had neglected to send the formulaic request to the Speaker before he departed for the Commonwealth meeting.

Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth has reported that Iran has been bribing countries to vote against Israel at the United Nations. The report alleges that an Iranian offer of $200,000 of financial assistance to Solomon Islands prior to the visit in October last year of Solomon Islands Foreign Minister William Haomae to Iran was made in exchange for Solomon Islands undertaking to vote against Israel at the UN.

Solomon Islands has traditionally abstained from voting in UN resolutions connected with Israel but has recently started to vote against Israel. Solomon Islands was the only country in the Pacific Islands region that voted in favor of adopting the Goldstone Report on Israel’s operation Case Lead in Gaza. This apparently so alarmed Israel that an Israeli Foreign Ministry representative was dispatched to Honiara to protest.

Apart from the engineering expertise promised last year to Solomon Islands, Iran also agreed to fund the travel costs of Solomon Islands medical students studying in Cuba. But this assistance has struck an obstacle. 

Fiji's interim Government has finally announced the commencement of a National Dialogue Forum – on 1 February 2010. The Forum will be held in preparation for a constitutional forum to be commenced in September 2012. 

Although Colonel Pio Tikoduadua, the Prime Minister's Permanent Secretary, has stressed that discussions at the Dialogue Forum will be 'wide ranging and inclusive', there are a number of pre-conditions for involvement.

Applicants must undertake to make contributions 'not inconsistent with the principles enunciated in the People's Charter for Change, Peace and Progress, they must not have any pending criminal charges or proceedings in Fiji's court system and they must not represent political organisations based on the communal representation.' Just in case any politicians thought there might be a loophole here, the Colonel also made it clear political parties would not be invited to the Dialogue. Civil society and other groups would, however, be welcome. 

It's not quite clear why more than two years of preparation are required for a constitutional forum, particularly when apparently two-thirds of Fiji's population have already expressed support for the People's Charter – Bainimarama's preferred basis for a new constitution — after extensive consultations. And if participants are not permitted to express views inconsistent with the People's Charter, how much further can a Dialogue Forum take the debate about Fiji's future?

The PNG Government handed down its 2010 budget this week. Treasurer Patrick Pruaitch has predicted record high growth of 8.5% per annum, almost double the actual growth of 4.5% in 2009. The PNG economy recorded a major success story this year in continuing to grow at a robust rate and in surviving the global economic crisis relatively intact, despite its high dependence on commodity exports.

The budget is a conservative document but highly dependent on finalising the much anticipated LNG deal with Exxon Mobil next month. Although the first LNG exports from this project will not commence until 2013, the Government has estimated the preparatory and construction phases will contribute about 3 percentage points to GDP growth next year.

Pruaitch warns of an 'exceptionally large current account deficit' in 2010, caused by increases in imports required for the construction phase of the LNG project. Inflation is due to rise to 9.5%, making the already increasing costs of living in PNG more difficult to bear. The Treasurer admits that his Government's accelerated drawdown of trust funds and high spending presents a risk to the economy and the budget.

Fiji's military leader, Commodore Frank Bainimarama, yesterday announced the expulsion from Fiji of Australian High Commissioner James Batley and Acting New Zealand High Commissioner Todd Cleaver. The decision was a signal of Bainimarama's unhappiness with advice on the applicability of travel bans that Australian officials gave to Sri Lankan judges on secondment to Fiji's judiciary.

Curiously, the Australian Government very recently offered an olive branch to Fiji by agreeing to upgrade the status of Fiji's Acting High Commissioner, Kamlesh Arya in Canberra to full High Commissioner status. 

In expelling James Batley, Bainimarama has also recalled Arya to Suva – an unusually prescient move, which left Australia holding few cards it could stomach dealing in retaliation. Foreign Minister Stephen Smith has now announced the formal expulsion of Kamlesh Arya, which was the minimum retaliatory action Canberra could take. Smith has been clear that the Australian response would be proportionate, which it certainly is, and that Australia wanted to continue to have diplomatic relations with Fiji.

For New Zealand, it will be the third time their most senior diplomatic representative has been expelled by Bainimarama. The Australian Government would have been expecting retaliation from Fiji since Fiji was suspended from the Pacific Islands Forum. James Batley would have long had a bag packed ready for immediate departure.

Today marks the last day in office of Australia's Parliamentary Secretary for Pacific Island Affairs, the Hon Duncan Kerr SC MP. Kerr has announced his retirement from his position and intention to retire from politics at the next federal election.

Managing Australia's enhanced relations with the Pacific has become a crowded field, with Prime Minister Rudd, Foreign Minister Smith, Trade Minister Crean and Parliamentary Secretary for International Development Assistance Bob McMullan all creating significant profiles in the region. Mr Kerr has put his mark on the relationship by making regular visits to Pacific Island countries and proving Australia's commitment to the region is based on mutual respect.

Kerr has been an important advocate of better people-to-people relations between Australia and the Pacific Islands. He has also encouraged quality evidence-based contestation of Australian policy. His interest in seeking out alternative views and his participation in intellectual debates is rare among office holders and made Mr Kerr quite popular with Australians committed to the Pacific.

Incredibly, Mr Kerr is the only serving member of the Australian parliament to have lived and worked in the Pacific. 

While China is increasingly perceived to be the major Asian player in the Pacific Islands region, Japan's interests in the region should not be forgotten. The Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) last week signed a memorandum of understanding with the PNG Government to support the development of the much anticipated multi-billion dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.

According to PNG's State Enterprises Minister, Arthur Somare, Japan will help fund the PNG government's equity in the project and has agreed to buy half of the LNG once the project is completed. With US$3 billion of the PNG government's equity in the LNG project, JBIC willl be PNG's largest financier. Japanese companies Nippon Oil Corp and Chiyoda Corp also have financial interests in the project.

While the final decision on the LNG investment by Exxon Mobil and partners is not due until December, PNG is already counting the benefits. This commitment by the JBIC will do much to increase Japan's profile in PNG. It also won't hurt to remind PNG and the region that Beijing is not the only player from 'the north' happy to do business with Pacific Islands.

Photo by Flickr user Mike at Sea, used under a Creative Commons license.

Samoa holds a national day of mourning today to remember the people it lost in the terrible tragedy of the tsunami last week. The Samoans have demonstrated the best of Pacific resilience, with determination to rebuild after the disaster. Despite the damage to the pristine tourist destinations along the south coast, promoting tourism, which makes up about one quarter of Samoa’s GDP, remains a high priority for the government and people of Samoa.

While the islands of the South Pacific believe themselves to be isolated from the rest of the world, the tsunami has shown that the world can and does embrace the Pacific in times of trouble. Emergency aid has been forthcoming from traditional partners Australia and New Zealand but also from Japan, the Europe Commission, the US and China. The French Government was quick to deploy assistance from its territories of New Caledonia and French Polynesia, as part of the tripartite FRANZ agreement, under which France, Australia and New Zealand cooperate to respond to natural disasters in the Pacific Islands region.

It would be good to see a united international effort to help reconstruction in Samoa. The cost of reconstruction has been estimated at A$135 million. While emergency assistance has to be the priority right now, a quick reconstruction process will help Samoa recover its position as one of the shining examples of successful and stable economies in the region. A united effort from donors beyond the deployment of emergency aid would send an important signal about the world's confidence in Samoa.

Individuals can of course also help – through donations and continuing to visit Samoa. Information about how to help can be obtained from AusAID's website.

Photo by Flickr user jborsboom, used under a Creative Commons license.