Pundits and scholars alike have decried Trump's failure to court ethnic and racial minorities as well as women. The presumed Republican presidential nominee has a tremendous women and minority problem. Trump's campaign has alienated African Americans by originally refusing to repudiate David Duke,
In August two men who knew President Ronald Reagan well posted a piece on RealClearPolitics headlined 'Trump is no Reagan'. Since his campaign began, Trump has claimed the Reagan mantle but, argued one-time Reagan campaign manager (Stu Spencer) and speechwriter (Ken Khachigian), Trump has no right
Lowy Institute Executive Director Michael Fullilove remembers the 2008 US presidential election campaign, when he was living in Washington, as a time of hope and promise. This year's race? Not so much.
Fresh from a trip to the US, in this quick comment Dr Fullilove compares the two election
So, with less than two months to go until the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees are crowned at their respective party conventions, the GOP is uniting around its candidate while the bitter rivalry between the two Democratic camps has many questioning if the party will be back able to
Nothing like a good Twitter war to attract attention. For most of this year Senator Elizabeth Warren has been taking pot shots at Donald Trump. Since he became the presumptive Republican nominee, she has upped the ante, telling Trump 'Your policies are dangerous. Your words are reckless. Your
Given how often we're now hearing about the parallels between Donald Trump's campaign and reality television (even President Obama is discussing it), it's worth highlighting this brilliant two-and-a-half minute evisceration of The Apprentice, the show Trump fronted for 14 seasons. It's a 2009 sketch
Two months ago over 120 of the most accomplished Republican foreign policy experts signed an open letter penned by Professor Eliot Cohen. It was an unfiltered condemnation of Donald Trump and his campaign, and concludes with a pledge:
Therefore, as committed and loyal
The US Navy has carried out another freedom of navigation operation in the South China Sea. According to defence sources, it was conducted, on the morning of 10 May, by the USS William P. Lawrence, a guided missile destroyer within 12 nautical miles of Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both the most strongly disliked presidential candidates for decades, according to this analysis by fivethirtyeight.com. It helps to explain why Bernie Sanders seems like such a nice guy. Soon we are likely to see if he is a nice guy who will be graceful in defeat
Those wondering how Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican party presidential nominee should have a look at this video, and listen to the short comment below. In a case of remarkably fortunate timing, the Lowy Institute, publisher of The Interpreter, today hosted a lunchtime lecture
With the outcome of this week's primary in Indiana generally expected to be a key indicator in the GOP nomination (The Hill suggests a win for Donald Trump would put him on 'a glide path'), perhaps it's time for a bit light of relief.
Here some jokes about the election from White House
Don’t let some bombast and uncivil language from Donald Trump change your view of the United States and its intentions. We share a language, a set of values and too many common interests to be anything but friends and allies.
Cover your ears and bear with us for another six
Ted Cruz is a walking ghost. In deadly radiation poisoning, this term describes the symptomless period that may follow immediate nausea, right before the immune system shuts down.
Cruz has already lost the nomination, it's just that he and the so-called 'Never-Trumps' are yet to realise it.
Donald Trump's position as the candidate most likely to be the Republican Party's nominee at the November 8 presidential election has prompted a lot of soul searching outside of the US. As many have observed, rarely have foreign policy and international trade played such a prominent role in a US
Walking home from the subway tonight, my passage was blocked by a tangle of yellow police tape strewn across the wide avenue bisecting the two main grounds of Brooklyn’s large Farragut public housing complex.
Bystanders told me ‘a cop shot someone; they’re killing all of us’. Even casual
It's all eyes on New York where everyone has an opinion on this week's primary, including former world chess champion and big-time Ronald Reagan fan Garry Kasparov. While the Russian-born Kasparov took a nicely placed swipe at Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders ('I'm sorry Bernie fans, but I lived
In my previous post I labelled the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, Donald Trump, a 'Nixon-Kissinger realist'. Since then, Trump has provided a detailed account of his worldview in an interview with David Sanger and Maggie Haberman from the New York Times.
It affirms my
The photos of Xi and Obama meeting in Washington last week reminded the world that, in nine months' time, there will be a new face sitting down with China's president for such tête-à-têtes. And what if that new face is Donald Trump?
This week, while ruminating on what a Trump administration
One of the unexpected joys of watching the primary season unfold is discovering the nicknames of the US states. Possibly my favourite to date is the Badger State, aka Wisconsin, where Democratic and Republican primaries will take place in a week's time. Right now, Ted Cruz appears to have a lead
The US president is seemingly everywhere as a fictional character these days, but let's bring together some more recent developments in the sub-genre. First, a trailer for Bryan Cranston's depiction of LBJ in All The Way:
The latest season of House of Cards started screening on Netflix this month
Okay, so it a different kind of slugfest to that seen at recent Trump rallies but the verbal fisticuffs over whether Bernie Sanders could still win the Democratic Party nomination are getting pretty lively.
First, the story so far. 270towin (named after the number of Electoral College votes it
We' ve had many important weeks in the primary voting season, but the results from the big states voting on Tuesday in the US, led by Ohio and Florida, are really, really going to be crucial.
They will give us a good idea of whether there is likely to be a contested Republication National
African American women have had a long history of political activism in the United States. Before women’s suffrage, the 15th amendment, and even as bondswomen they admonished racism, sexism and classism as tenets of America’s founding ideals. So it not surprising black women today carry on
On International Women's Day let's look at what women are saying about Republican front runner Donald Trump. Quite a large part of his appeal is that he is a political neophyte, an outsider who owes no-one anything, so he doesn't have to play for favours.
On the campaign trail with daughter Ivanka
Despite Bernie Sanders dominating in his home state of Vermont and Ted Cruz winning handily in his native Texas — and both triumphant in Oklahoma — Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have so far proved to be irresistible forces in most electorates during the 'Super Tuesday' primaries. While there
Hillary Clinton's victory speech following the South Carolina primary was the campaign moment her supporters had been waiting for. As Chris Tognotti on Bustle observed, 'it's tough to deny her skill as a forceful and fiery orator, and never more so than when the wind's at her back'. Clinton spoke
Back in 1999 the world was scared. The source of that fear was Y2K, aka the millennium bug; a programming glitch that, it was thought, would render many computer systems useless when the clocked clicked over into the new century. The Reserve Bank of Australia even held a press conference on 2am on 1
Jeb Bush suspended his candidacy for Republican presidential nomination on Saturday night after ranking a disappointing fourth in the South Carolina primary. Losing in what used to be considered 'Bush country' was the final nail in the coffin for his presidential bid. That said, his campaign was
I confess I didn't sit through the whole 20 minutes of this film, all filmed with shaky phone cameras, though nicely edited. But I did find parts of it revealing:
You sense from his supporters that Trump's campaign is almost pure emotion. Most of those interviewed in this film cite not a single
Let's start with the county judge who pronounced US Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonin Scalia dead on Saturday. That would be Presidio County Judge Cinderela Guevara, who was shopping on Saturday afternoon when a call came through from a sheriff at the scene of Scalia's death. The Supreme
Avowed 'democratic' socialist Bernie Sanders and unashamed arch-capitalist Donald Trump were the big winners in today's New Hampshire presidential primary. The Sanders win will lead to a huge, albeit probably temporary, loss of confidence for the Hillary Clinton campaign while there is now even
Marco Rubio should drop out of the White House race and become Donald Trump’s vice presidential nominee.
Rubio devotees; hear me out. First, some facts:
Every Republican candidate who has been the frontrunner for as long as Trump has gone on to win the nomination.
Never has a Republican
On the eve of the New Hampshire primary Michael Bloomberg has confirmed he is considering a run for the White House this year. The billionaire's interview with the Financial Times verifies a report a few weeks ago in The New York Times. It has also given every other candidate something to think
Results are now in for the first primary: Cruz for the Republicans, Clinton for the Democrats.
What does this mean for the US presidential election 2016?
For Republicans the Iowa result opens a can of worms. As I've argued previously, a Trump win in Iowa would have effectively ended the race.
Who'd have thunk it? A 74-year-old who wants to raise taxes, describes the US economy as rigged, hates kissing babies, is pro-choice, and in favour of gay marriage, has just become Hillary Clinton's worst nightmare.
OK so Bernie Sanders hasn't won the Iowa Democratic Caucus. But he has come so
This rather splendid (and splendidly brief) video from Vox is a gift to US politics junkies. With the Iowa Caucus date of Feb 1 closing in, it's worth a watch if you want to understand how the Democrats and Republicans in this Midwestern state will decide their respective favourites in the
Trump is going to win the Republican nomination. The GOP establishment and some (but not all) of the punditry class have finally awoken from denialist torpor and are yawning into this long-standing reality.
Theories about how Trump loses the nomination have become increasingly incredible. The
'Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy.' This statement from the election race of 1988 came to mind after Ted Cruz surprisingly sought to co-opt JFK to his cause over the weekend. Cruz, the junior Senator from Texas whose hold on those keen to enough to vote in a primary will soon be tested, said JFK
Polling is a funny business. This New Yorker article by Jill Lepore traces how the modern opinion poll began, how its purpose has morphed, why polls get it wrong, and how difficult it is to get people to talk to the pollsters in the digital age:
Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal has recalled how
While various industries have waxed and waned in the US, the nation's undisputed lead in information technology remains a constant. Many countries have produced one, two, even a handful of entrepreneurs with a bright idea that made them billions, but the US churns them out. In Silicon Valley,
So, what did we learn from the final GOP debate of the year?
All of those on the podium for the main event had a plan to shut down ISIS. Just how practical these are is questionable, with most a long way from current thinking. Donald Trump, for example, announced he wants to shut down the
First up this week is a great bit of television from two comic masters. Jon Stewart popped up on Stephen Colbert's Late Show and — with the help of wig and some Cheeto makeup — gave a rather splendid Donald Trump impression. Stewart wanted to make a plea for Congress to secure funding for
As noted by Crispin Rovere in 'The Shocking Truth: Why a Trump Presidency could be good for ANZUS', Donald Trump has boasted he hasn't had to spend any money on advertising because he gets so much free media coverage. And why not? The same straight talking that wows the crowds makes for terrific
What's in a name? If you are the leading candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, quite a lot it turns out. At the start of this week Associated Press announced it had, like Hillary Clinton herself, dropped the Rodham. From now on, the candidate would be referred to as just Hillary
In this Lowy Institute Analysis, Research Fellow Associate Professor Rodger Shanahan examines how Arab Gulf States, led by Saudi Arabia, are responding to the Obama administration’s less interventionist approach to the Middle East by adopting a more assertive regional policy aimed at containing