Within China's bureaucratic system, sometimes it is in an agency's interest to compete with others, rather than coordinate, in order to advance its own bureaucratic power and receive more funding.
Linda Jakobson's recent Lowy Report, China's Unpredictable Maritime Security Actors, highlights
Admiral Sir Mark Stanhope (Ret.) is a former First Sea Lord and Chief of Naval Staff, Royal Navy. This is an extract from a presentation to a Lowy Institute international workshop on sea-launched nuclear weapons and strategic stability, held in Singapore earlier this year.
The role of nuclear
'China will work with other countries to further promote a harmonious maritime order.' Even after years of studying the maritime tensions on China's periphery, I had to check that I had not misread the 9 December Xinhua dispatch quoting Liu Jieyi, China's Ambassador to the UN.
These reassuring
Last week's Fifth Xiangshan Forum in Beijing demonstrated just how difficult it will be to resolve disputes in the South China Sea as long as key parties believe history must arbitrate the veracity of claims to sovereignty over contested islands.
Scholars, officials and military officers from all
Three books published this year contemplate Asia's most vexing problem. Taken together, they provide a thorough understanding of the contest in the South China Sea. Still, they leave the reader with one large puzzle.
Asia's Cauldron recounts, in Robert Kaplan's readable travelogue style, the
'Will China's growing global economic interests lead it to expand its overseas military presence and capabilities?' This is a question that has been asked by policymakers, academics and strategists since China's economic growth became dependent on its ability to access energy through maritime sea
'They put knives on our throats and threatened to kill us if we resist,' the deputy captain of a Vietnamese-flagged ship told reporters after his oil tanker was hijacked earlier this month. It was the twelfth hijacking attempt since April around the Malacca Straits, and the fifth successful
Mapping the Indo-Pacific? China, India and the United States Rory Medcalf Chapter 2 in Mohan Malik (ed.), Maritime Security in the Indo-Pacific Perspectives from China, India, and the United States September 2014
From a strategic perspective, the bottom line attraction for states seeking to acquire nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) is survivability. States possessing SSBNs cannot be victims of a disarming first strike. They will always possess the ability to strike back with submarine launched
As several participants in our debate have argued, nuclear ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) can have a positive effect on strategic stability in Asia and globally. But they do not exist in a vacuum. New military capabilities, and strategies that take advantage of them, are being developed and
Chinese submarine support ship in Colombo Port, Sri Lanka. (PLA photo.)
The visit of the Chinese Type 039 'Song' class submarine to Colombo, Sri Lanka, earlier this month passed with little notice, but it's the first time one of the People's Liberation Army-Navy's (PLA-N) diesel-powered submarines
Asia's "Cold Peace": China and India's Delicate Diplomatic Dance Rory Medcalf The National Interest 24 September 2014 Please click here for the online text. 
As we begin the second round of our debate on sea-based nuclear weapons in the Indo-Pacific, here is the first clear image of the INS Arihant, India's first indigenous nuclear-powered submarine, to be armed with either a dozen 750km-range nuclear tipped ballistic missiles or four larger missiles
The U.S.- China Rivalry Has Asia on Edge: Can "Middle Powers" Create Stability? C. Raja Mohan and Rory Medcalf The National Interest 15 August 2014 Please click here for the online text
Ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) became the seagoing platform of choice for the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons by 1960, with the availability of submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Today there are five countries with operational SSBNs. The US, the UK, France and Russia all have a
It has become commonplace to lament the arms races underway in Indo-Pacific Asia.
China's military modernisation over the last two decades has helped provoke heightened political tensions and growing concern in capitals from Tokyo to New Delhi to Washington and Moscow. North Korea's continued
China, India and possibly Pakistan intend to deploy nuclear weapons at sea. Ultimately, such deployments may well have a stabilising effect — that is, they may reduce the risk of full-scale war and nuclear use. Sea-based nuclear weapons might, for instance, fit well with 'no-first-use' doctrines
1914-2014: the EU has more to share with the Asia-Pacific than history lessons Rory Medcalf and May-Britt Stumbaum European Geostrategy 8 July 2014 Please click here for the full online text
In an article in The Australian, Non-resident Fellow Professor Alan Dupont writes that Beijing must be persuaded to change its course for regional peace of mind
Is the Bay of Bengal the next strategic locus for Sino-Indian strategic competition?
Prominent strategic commentator Raja Mohan recently lamented that India was on the point of 'losing' the Bay of Bengal to China. The occasion of his complaint was the attendance by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan
Those of you who read Mike Green's post this morning and who have followed the coverage of US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel's budget bid will understand that this is not the last word on the US defence budget. Congress will try to fight some of the cuts, the sequester may impose further cuts, and as
The US Navy has formed the view that the November 2013 incident between the American cruiser Cowpens and the Chinese carrier group arose directly from the PLA Navy's lack of experience with oceanic operations and the formal and informal rules which govern interactions between foreign navies.
That's
China's Indo-Pacific naval exercise, which I first analysed in this post, is continuing to make waves, with David Wroe of the Sydney Morning Herald providing this good wrap-up on the implications for Australia. But what are we to make of the latest twist being reported in the Jakarta Post?
In this Indonesian-language article for Media Indonesia, Rory Medcalf and Dr C Raja Mohan explore the strategic implications of China's recent naval foray into the waters between Australia and Indonesia
In this op-ed for The Australian, Rory Medcalf and C Raja Mohan look at the strategic implications of China's naval foray into the waters between Indonesia and Australia
India-Japan ties in the face of a rising China Danielle Rajendram China-India Brief # 20 Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy 28 January 2014 Please click here for the full online text
Late last year, tensions in East Asia flared after Japanese Prime Minister Abe made a controversial official visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo. What are the consequences of the visit likely to be and will it hurt US-Japan relations?
Malaysia is pursuing a two-fold strategy in the South China
This workshop report comprises four papers presented at an international workshop, 'Tensions in the East China Sea', which was held at the Lowy Institute in Sydney in June 2013. The papers are written by Ms Bonnie Glaser, Ms Linda Jakobson, Prof Jin Canrong and Mr Wang Hao, and Lt Gen (Ret)
It’s the time of year for predictions, but rather than looking at what might happen in Northeast Asia in 2014, let's flag some events that, although they might or should happen, probably won’t happen.
1. There will be no Sino-Japanese war
The analogies of China to Wilhelmine Germany
This week Japan released its first overarching national security strategy, a sign of the troubled times in North Asian geopolitics as well as a marker of where Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to take Japanese policy.
So this was the logical moment for the Lowy Institute to launch a new analysis
In this interview with Austin Ramzy for the New York Times' Sinosphere blog, Rory Medcalf discusses the regional security implications of China's Air Defence Identification Zone
In this article for The Australian, James Brown and Rory Medcalf assess Australia's readiness to face the changing strategic circumstances in the Indo-Pacific
In this article on The Diplomat's Flashpoints blog, Rory Medcalf discusses the implications of Chinese naval activity in the United States' Exclusive Economic Zone as revealed at the recent Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore
On 21 May 2013, International Security Program Director Rory Medcalf made a presentation at the Asia-Pacific Centre for Security Studies Workshop on Maritime Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Region: China, India and U.S. Perspectives. The full text of his remarks is included below
On 29 April 2013, Shadow Defence Minister Senator David Johnston gave a lecture to the Lowy Institute on the Coalition's defence policy in the lead-up to the release of the 2013 Defence White Paper. The text of Senator Johnston's speech is included below
In this article on The Diplomat's Flashpoints blog, Rory Medcalf looks at the implications of the Philippines' legal challenge to China on the South China Sea under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea