Perhaps there is, as Ross Garnaut has argued, no silver lining to Donald Trump’s economics. But there may be a small silver lining to Trump’s rejection of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his embrace of protectionist policies during the campaign. It depends if the response to these helps
Now that the terms of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have been agreed, the participant countries have to decide whether to ratify the deal. In assessing the benefits, where might we turn for guidance on the economics?
First thoughts might go to David Ricardo, father of one of the few ideas
Attendees at the APEC summit this week may be walking around with a new spring in their step. Some observers have suggested the successful conclusion of the Trans Pacific Partnership could be a stepping stone to 'an even bigger Asian Pacific trade agreement among all 21 members of APEC'.
With the text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) finally revealed, commentators, specialists and interest-groups can immerse themselves in the 6000 pages (with important side-letters still to come) of the agreement. But the nature of the discussion will change now that the negotiation is
The negotiators have finally reached agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The US Congress might yet be a stumbling block, but the many US interest groups which stand to benefit will influence that outcome. Other TPP countries have to get legislative approval too.
After marathon talks, the Trans Pacific Partnership has been sealed. The stage is now set for some fantastic battles to get this through national legislatures. I'll leave it to others to count the numbers.
I've written previously about my concerns regarding the TPP, and agreements like it. I won't
A month ago, international trade was in the headlines. President Obama had just obtained Trade Promotion Authority for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and in Australia, the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) was signed. But then all went quiet.
Trade Minister Andrew Robb.
Now that Congress has provided President Obama with Trade Promotion Authority as we enter the last phase of the TPP negotiations, the treaty seems likely to go ahead. What is left for Australian authorities to think about?
While the TPP draft will come before the Australian parliament for
In a little-noticed interview, the chief of Panama's Canal Authority concedes that 'the world and the canal were unlikely to ever again see the booming container trade that characterised the 1990s and early 2000s' due to shifting manufacturing patterns and American thrift.
Obviously, he has
One aspect of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that has come under criticism is the lack of transparency in the negotiating process. Could a more transparent model be used for these kinds of negotiations?
In other areas of official decision-making, recent decades have seen a big shift towards
Bruno Mascitelli is editor of the newly released The Austrade Story: Export and Investment Facilitation Under the Microscope.
The Australian Trade Commission, or Austrade as it is commonly known, turns 30 in 2016.
It came into existence in 1986 as a statutory government agency for export promotion
Earlier posts have discussed how the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – if it comes into force – will be part of the process of setting global rules across a wide range of issues, including intellectual property rights. The just-released Harper Competition Policy Review notes the importance
The Abbott Government will shortly release a discussion paper on the Australian tax system. It will be the first step towards the much anticipated tax white paper. International factors should figure prominently in the white paper — specifically, how to ensure that Australia has a resilient tax
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is close to the make-or-break stage. It will either get US Congressional blessing soon or lose momentum and slip from the agenda. So it is surprising how little public debate there is in Australia about its important ramifications. For an excellent exception, see
Leon Berkelmans is in good company in defending the policy actions which have come to be described as 'currency wars'.
Ben Bernanke gave the same defence of the US Fed's actions while he was Chairman: while low interest rates and 'quantitative easing' (QE) may give the domestic economy an extra
The 2008 financial crisis left no doubt that ill-considered debt can cause major damage not just to an individual country, but to the global economy.
You might think that by now, six years later, balance sheet repair would have taken debt below pre-crisis levels. However, debt burdens are
In the decades leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, international trade typically grew much faster than GDP.
This reflected increasing global economic integration: tariff barriers were coming down, trade groups (eg. the eurozone, NAFTA, ASEAN) facilitated trade through regulatory simplification
There is pride in Hong Kong that a local private company is pushing ahead with perhaps the world's largest-ever civil works project, the 280km long, 500m wide Nicaragua Canal. Construction began in December 2014.
The South China Morning Post dismisses outside suspicions while modestly describing
A few weeks ago Sam Roggeveen quoted PayPal founder Peter Thiel, who argued that competition is over-rated and monopoly would enhance innovation. We shouldn't be surprised that business people are in favour of monopoly. In 1776 Adam Smith observed:
People of the same trade seldom meet together,
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a house of cards. The blockbuster trade agreement, spanning the Pacific Rim and covering a score of topics, is the subject of intense negotiations in this week of Asian summitry. But its fate will depend on the brutal partisan domestic politics of Washington
The APEC Leaders' Meeting underway in Beijing seems to be finessing the various conflicting and overlapping trade initiatives and avoiding serious damage. But it is not resolving any of the underlying tensions.
At the multilateral level, the WTO remains in limbo after India pulled the rug out
US mid-terms elections will take place on 4 November, with polls suggesting the Republicans will re-take control of the Senate. President Obama's next steps on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), which his Administration says is the key economic plank of the rebalance to Asia, will be heavily
The smartphone in your pocket embodies today's cutting-edge technology. It is also a product of a global supply chain decidedly old-school in the way it shares rewards.
Two brands, Apple and Samsung, scoop over 100% of the profit pool (the other brands are losing money, giving them negative
In this Lowy Institute Analysis, G20 Studies Centre Director Mike Callaghan examines what outcomes from the Brisbane G20 Summit in November would help reinvigorate the forum and render this year's Summit a success
In a new Lowy Institute Analysis launched today, Nicholas Humphries, the Australian Customs and Border Protection Service Fellow at the Lowy Institute, examines how Customs can increase Australia's trade competitiveness at a time when goods and services are increasingly produced across borders in
At first glance, there seems to be plenty of evidence from Tony Abbott's Tokyo visit that, for the Australian leader, the Japan relationship can't get close enough. The much-vaunted FTA was signed. There was an audience with the Emperor (pictured). There was a state welcome with Japanese and
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), repeatedly described as the 21st century platinum-standard trade agreement, is in trouble.
The latest round of negotiations has ended in Singapore without agreement, putting yet another deadline for completion beyond reach. Meanwhile, the 'fast track' Trade
Journalist Adam Minter has written a fascinating account of the global rubbish and recycling industry. I recommended his book, Junkyard Planet, as one of my top 'development books' of 2013. Here is part 1 of an interview I am conducting with Adam via email, and below the text a couple of captioned
In an opinion piece in The Australian Financial Review, Mark Thirlwell writes that the WTO needs to be prepared for the ways in which looming mega-regional deals will change the way global trade is done and that the G20 needs to do more to support the multilateral trading system
The multilateral trading system, an important contributor to global peace and prosperity, is in trouble. In a new Lowy Institute Analysis for the G20 Studies Centre, Mark Thirlwell argues that it is time for G20 Leaders to work harder to save it.
This issue of the Monitor examines international trade and the role of the G20. Over coming months the Monitor will cover in detail a number of issues that are, or should be on the G20 agenda. The next issue will deal with financial regulation and the role of the G20
The Doha round of world trade talks has collapsed. After the negotiations were suspended back in July 2006, Mark Thirlwell wrote that – regardless of the ultimate outcome of the Round – the era of giant, set-piece trade negotiations like Doha and its predecessor, the Uruguay Round, was over. The
Reflecting on the repeated failure of the Doha Round of international trade negotiations, this paper takes a look back at the stresses and strains that afflicted an earlier globalisation episode to look for lessons about the current difficulties facing economic liberalisation
In a Lowy Institute Analysis, Mark Thirlwell argues that while the suspension of negotiations in late July may or may not mark the end of the Doha Round, it will almost certainly mark a watershed for the international trading system.
In this 2005 Lowy Institute Paper, Mark Thirlwell surveys the changing international trade landscape. The inability of policymakers to deliver the Doha Round has become a powerful symbol of the growing strains on the multilateral trading system
This Issues Brief suggests that a key theme over the past year has been the management of external imbalances in a world economy that is not only increasingly integrated but which is simultaneously undergoing a sustained geographic shift in the distribution of economic weight towards Asia
Developments including the rise of vertically specialised trade and the growing internationalisation of production, broader and deeper goods and financial market integration, the extension of international trade to the previously “non-tradeable” services sector, and the spread of international
The post-World War II international trade policy framework is being challenged by a proliferation of bilateral and regional trading arrangements. Australia faces a choice over whether to join this preferential trade bandwagon and risk collateral damage to the multilateral trading system, or to go no
Southeast Asian industrial exports are now facing intense competition from Chinese industrial exports. How much more would competition increase with China's recent accession to the World Trade Organization? Would Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand (the ASEAN-4) de-industrialise and return