Sam Roggeveen's Bio | People

People | experts Sam Roggeveen

Director, International Security Program

Lowy Institute

Areas of ExpertiseAustralian foreign and defence policy, China’s military forces, US defence and foreign policy, drones and other military technology. Also, trends in global democracy.

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China’s Third Aircraft Carrier Is Aimed at a Post-U.S. Asia

Beijing can’t challenge U.S. naval power directly yet. Originally published in the Foreign Policy Magazine

By Sam Roggeveen

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Frontier Rules: Emerging tech and challenges to the rules-based order

Intensifying geopolitical competition is combining with emerging technologies to create new frontiers for statecraft and present new challenges to the rules-based order. How should Australia engage in emerging domains such as cyberspace and outer space? How should Australia adopt new military

By Ben Scott, Sasha Fegan, Sam Roggeveen

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Australia enters the post-party phase of Western democracy

Get used to governing with wafer-thin majorities or as a minority.

By Sam Roggeveen

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China: The Morrison legacy and beyond

Labor is expected to persist with most of the Coalition’s foreign and defence policies. But useful changes can be made.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Payne v Wong: The foreign policy election debate

This afternoon’s foreign policy debate at the National Press Club between the Foreign Minister, Senator Marise Payne and Shadow Foreign Minister, Senator Penny Wong, defied my expectations in some ways, but confirmed them in others. Here are the surprises: I was expecting

By Sam Roggeveen

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Chinese bases in the Pacific: A reality check

Frustrating Beijing’s ambitions to create a sphere of influence is overwhelmingly a diplomatic task, not a military one.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Russia-Ukraine: Lessons for Australia’s defence

Great powers seek spheres of influence – but there are limits.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Indonesia makes a big defence statement

Canberra should look beyond the Quad and to its own backyard for an all-weather strategic friend.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Lowy Institute Conversations: Paul Kelly on Scott Morrison's foreign policy 'mission'

In this episode, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program Sam Roggeveen speaks to journalist and political commentator Paul Kelly about the factors and influences that have shaped Scott Morrison’s approach to foreign policy

By Sam Roggeveen

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Don’t let the China hawks frighten you

China will become more powerful -- but any hostile reach towards Australia will always be limited by technology and regional politics. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Sam Roggeveen

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Ear worms for The Interpreter’s 2021 favourites

Podcasts-a-plenty for the end of year break, a new beat for world politics.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Changing my mind about AUKUS

What I said then, and what I think now, about the nuclear-powered subs announcement that caught everyone by surprise.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Australia is Making a Risky Bet on the U.S.

Australia has thrust itself into a central role in America’s rivalry with China. Originally published in The New York Times

By Sam Roggeveen

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How nuclear subs could transform Australia, its alliance and Asia

First thoughts on the consequences of a truly momentous decision.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Beyond Fortress Australia

The reality of living in a pandemic has dawned on Australia. Covid cases at the time of writing are high and still climbing. The virus is here to stay. Equally clear is that ring-fencing the country from the world — the ‘Fortress Australia’ policy — is no longer viable

By Hervé Lemahieu , Michael Fullilove, Emma Connors, Richard McGregor, John Edwards, Jonathan Pryke, Ben Bland, Lydia Khalil, Natasha Kassam, Jenny Hayward-Jones, Sam Roggeveen, Alex Oliver

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Will ANZUS make it to 80?

A war in Asia would be a true test of the “unbreakable” bonds said to define the US-Australia relationship.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Afghanistan holds lessons for American power in Asia

The US will one day ask the same question about its presence in Asia that it did of Afghanistan: is it still worth it?

By Sam Roggeveen

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Why the US is quietly outshining China

Xi Jinping likes to say China owns the future and the West is in decline. But appearances can also deceive. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Sam Roggeveen

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China debate not just a matter of hawks and doves

Two new volumes explore Australia’s economic, cultural and security relationship with the emerging superpower.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Australia and migration: Will the Covid pause become a full stop?

A bipartisan consensus about high immigration remains. But so does arrogance about Australia’s place in the region.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Australia keeps calm while China carries on

In the face of sustained coercion, Canberra has rejected the urge to seek economic revenge against Beijing.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Something is broken in the way we are conducting Australian politics

Originally published in The Mandarin

By Sam Roggeveen

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How far would Australia go in defence of the rules-based order?

The way the defence force is structured and the weapons deployed sends a message beyond the words.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Democracy vs autocracy: Biden’s “inflection point”

If this really is a new Cold War, it’s off to a slow start.

By Sam Roggeveen

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What does America think the rules-based order is for?

The US is in a defensive crouch rather than in an expansionary mood. But bring on debate.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Book review: The Ministry for the Future

Putting the fate of the world in the hands of boring bureaucrats might not seem compelling – might just also be right.

By Sam Roggeveen

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There are reasons to feel OK about 2020, but a long-forgotten worry got worse

Originally published in The Sydney Morning Herald

By Sam Roggeveen

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COVIDcast: 2020 Asia Power Index

In this episode of COVIDcast, Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, sits down with the two leading researchers behind the Lowy Institute’s 2020 Asia Power Index

By Sam Roggeveen

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Why Australia Should Respond to China’s Provocations With Self-Reliance

Originally published in World Politics Review

By Sam Roggeveen

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China: Explaining that tweet

Four possible reasons behind a Chinese official’s social media missive.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Trump or Biden, Australia is alone

America protected Europe through the Cold War with a credible nuclear deterrent. Indo-Pacific nations can expect no such pledge. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Sam Roggeveen

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Australia's Security and the Rules-Based Order: Tracking a Decade of Policy Evolution

In this feature, we identify ten recurring propositions about the rules-based order and show it's evolution through national debate and government policy. Explore how the rules-based order has developed over time and in meaning with experts offering inside commentary along the way

By Ben Scott, Madeleine Nyst, Sam Roggeveen

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North Korea’s new missile

If – big if – this missile is real, America cannot guarantee its homeland security in a war with North Korea.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Why the American public has tuned out of politics

The American political class are fighting their private culture wars that have sidelined the concerns that ordinary citizens have. Originally published in the Australian Financial Review

By Sam Roggeveen

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Submission to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Inquiry into the Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Australia's Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade

Joint submission by Lowy Institute researchers to the JSCFADT inquiry into the implications of the pandemic.

By Ben Bland, Alexandre Dayant, John Edwards, Michael Fullilove, Bonnie S Glaser, Stephen Grenville, Natasha Kassam, Lydia Khalil, Hervé Lemahieu , Richard McGregor, Shane McLeod, Annmaree O’Keeffe, Alex Oliver, Jonathan Pryke, Roland Rajah, Sam Roggeveen, Ben Scott

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Regional security depends on making order from chaos

Originally published in The Australian

By Sam Roggeveen

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Canberra vs Beijing: Getting serious about costs

It is impossible to have a useful public debate about the value of sovereignty if we refuse to put a price on it.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Unspoken danger in buying more missiles to defend Australia

Originally published in the Sydney Morning Herald

By Sam Roggeveen

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Morrison’s defence reset

The Prime Minister wants a defence force for a region which is “poorer, more dangerous and more disorderly”.

By Sam Roggeveen

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Emerging From COVID: Policy Responses To The Pandemic

In this new feature, Lowy Institute experts provide policy recommendations for Australia to address issues that are critical to our nation’s — and the world’s — successful emergence from the pandemic

By Alex Oliver, Natasha Kassam, Richard McGregor, Roland Rajah, Ben Scott, Sam Roggeveen, Hervé Lemahieu , Stephen Grenville, Alyssa Leng, John Edwards, Ben Bland, Alexandre Dayant, Shane McLeod, Jonathan Pryke

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Emerging from COVID: Policy Responses to the Pandemic

Lowy Institute experts provide policy recommendations for Australia to address issues that are critical to our nation's — and the world's — successful emergence from the pandemic

By Ben Bland, Alexandre Dayant, John Edwards, Stephen Grenville, Natasha Kassam, Hervé Lemahieu , Richard McGregor, Shane McLeod, Alex Oliver, Jonathan Pryke, Roland Rajah, Sam Roggeveen, Ben Scott

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Global megatrends are coming for the ANZUS alliance

Originally published in the Canberra Times

By Sam Roggeveen

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COVIDcast: Hugh White on Coronavirus and Asia’s power balance

The latest episode in a podcast to discuss the implications of coronavirus for Australia, the region and the world.

By Sam Roggeveen, Hugh White

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COVIDcast: Hugh White on Coronavirus and Asia’s power balance

In this episode of COVIDcast, Sam Roggeveen, Lowy Institute’s Director of the International Security Program, sat down with Professor Hugh White to discuss the connection between the pandemic and the changing balance of power in Asia.

By Sam Roggeveen